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What That Nicokick Survey About ALP Actually Tells Us (And What It Doesn't)

ALP's press release cites a Nicokick survey claiming 86% of pouch users are 'likely to switch' to the Tucker Carlson brand. Here's what that number means—and what it very much does not.

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Tucker Carlson's nicotine pouch brand ALP launched publicly on December 23, claiming pre-orders "significantly outpaced" expectations and citing a Nicokick survey that found "86% of current U.S. nicotine pouch users are likely to switch to ALP." That's a wild number. Here's what the data actually shows—and what it leaves out.

What the survey asked

Per ALP's press release, Nicokick—the online retailer owned by Haypp Group (STO: HAYPP) and identified as "the largest online retailer of nicotine pouches"—surveyed current U.S. pouch users. The finding: 86% said they're "likely to switch" to ALP.

Marina Murphy, Nicokick's Senior Director of Scientific Affairs, said the brand "should have a significant impact on the nicotine market, not only with current pouch users but also with consumers of other forms of smoking and tobacco products."

The press release notes "more information about the study can be found here," but does not link to methodology, sample size, exact question wording, or whether respondents had tried the product.

What 'likely to switch' actually means

Stated purchase intention is not the same as actual switching behavior. Standard market research distinguishes between:

  • Top-box intention ("definitely will buy")
  • Top-two-box ("definitely" + "probably will buy")
  • Any positive response (which can include "might" or "somewhat likely")

Without seeing the question, we don't know which bucket that 86% represents. If the survey asked "How likely are you to try ALP?" after describing the product's claims ("moistest," "whole grain," Tucker Carlson-backed), high stated interest is expected. Trial intent ≠ brand switching ≠ repeat purchase.

For context: New product launch surveys routinely show 60-80% purchase intent among target demos. Actual trial rates are typically 10-30% of that, and repeat purchase rates lower still.

Who was surveyed

Nicokick's customer base skews toward:

  • Online buyers (not gas station/convenience buyers, who represent the bulk of U.S. pouch volume)
  • Likely higher engagement with the category (people who seek out online retailers tend to be heavier users or flavor-seekers)
  • Possibly more aware of ALP's marketing, given Nicokick is now a "preferred online retail partner" per a separate ALP announcement

This isn't a representative sample of all U.S. pouch users—it's a sample of Nicokick's customer base, which is itself a slice of the market.

What the evidence does NOT prove

The survey does not show:

  • That 86% of U.S. pouch users will actually switch to ALP
  • That ALP will capture 86% market share
  • That stated intention will translate to purchase behavior at scale
  • How the product performs in brick-and-mortar retail (still the dominant channel)
  • Long-term repeat rates or brand loyalty

It does suggest strong initial interest among a specific online buyer segment—which matters for a direct-to-consumer launch, but isn't the same as toppling ZYN's 75%+ market share.

What this means for the market

ALP's actual pre-order performance ("significantly outpaced expectations") is a harder data point, though the company hasn't released numbers. If those sales hold and convert to repeat buyers, that's signal.

The Nicokick survey is marketing—useful for gauging buzz, less useful for forecasting market impact. The real test: whether ALP's "whole grain" pitch and Carlson's audience translate to sustained volume in a category where ZYN, Rogue, and ON already own shelf space and user habits.

For now, 86% stated intent among online buyers tells us ALP has successfully generated interest in its target demo. Whether that interest survives contact with the actual market is the next chapter.

What's next

ALP is available for purchase at alppouch.com and through Nicokick and Northerner (per a separate partnership announcement). The brand is jointly owned by Turning Point Brands (NYSE: TPB) and Tucker Carlson Network.

Watch for: brick-and-mortar distribution announcements, third-party sales data (Nielsen, IRI), and whether the "teabag era is over" rhetoric translates to actual shelf movement.

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