BAT flew investors to Winston-Salem, North Carolina on September 29 and told them the future of the company is smokeless nicotine — with Velo now its growth engine in the US.

What happened

At its 2026 Capital Markets Day, British American Tobacco laid out "Horizon 2030": New Category revenue (Velo pouches, Vuse vapes, glo heated products) growing by mid-teens percentages through 2030, with New Category contribution margin reaching at least 30% by 2030. The company is aiming for 50 million adult smokeless consumers by 2030 — up from 35 million as of June 2026 — and for smokeless products to make up 50% of group revenue by 2035. Today that share stands at 19.8%.

The US numbers came from Reynolds American president David Waterfield's presentation. Per the Winston-Salem Journal's report from the event, Velo Plus has climbed to a 30% share of the US nicotine pouch market as the clear number two behind ZYN. Waterfield's own framing: BAT explicitly ranks modern oral as its growth engine, with vapor and heated tobacco as "an entry point to next-generation products for 80% of traditional cigarette smokers."

On the financials, BAT reiterated it is on track for FY26 guidance — revenue growth toward the lower end of 3-5%, adjusted profit growth of 4-6%, EPS growth toward the middle of 5-8%, all at constant rates — while pointing out a currency headwind of roughly 2-2.5% on EPS growth.

Why it matters

The strategy day makes one thing explicit: the world's biggest nicotine company by market value is organizing itself around the pouches-and-vapor market, not cigarettes. BAT says it will concentrate 80% of its investments in the top-10 global vapor markets and the top-10 heated-tobacco markets that complement its vapor footprint — a signal of where the money flows next.

It also matters for price and availability. A premiumisation-and-mix push on Velo means BAT wants more money per can, not just more cans — expect continued investment in stronger formats, new flavors and premium lines rather than price wars. And with Velo Plus at 30% US share, the duopoly with ZYN is consolidating: shelf space, retailer programs and marketing budgets will tilt further toward the two leaders.

The headwind BAT didn't dwell on: regulators. WHO's European office is pushing the EU to treat pouches like cigarettes, the UK brings in age-of-sale rules this month, and the US FDA has been pushing through smokeless product reviews under political pressure to move faster. BAT's 2030 targets assume that regulatory picture holds together — which is exactly what a company this size is spending its lobbying and science budget on.

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SOURCES: BAT RNS — BAT 2026 Capital Markets Day (29 Sep 2026), Winston-Salem Journal — Reynolds drives BAT's growth as smokeless nicotine products gain ground (4 Oct 2026)