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BAT commits to mid-teens New Category growth through 2030 — with Velo front and center

At its Capital Markets Day in Winston-Salem, BAT targeted mid-teens New Category revenue growth and a 30%+ contribution margin by 2030, while guiding 2026 growth to the lower end of its ranges.

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British American Tobacco laid out its Horizon 2030 strategy at its Capital Markets Day in Winston-Salem, North Carolina, on September 29 — and the numbers put Velo, its nicotine pouch brand, at the center of the plan.

What happened

BAT told investors it expects revenue from its New Categories — the portfolio that includes Velo pouches, Vuse vapour and glo heated tobacco — to grow at a mid-teens rate through 2030, with New Category contribution margin reaching at least 30% by 2030. The company attributed that margin expansion to premiumization, improved product mix, increased scale and more targeted resource allocation.

The guidance for 2026 itself was more modest. BAT said it is on track for the lower end of its 3%–5% revenue growth and 4%–6% adjusted profit from operations growth ranges this year, with adjusted diluted EPS growth toward the middle of its 5%–8% range — all at constant currency. It expects to reach its 2.0–2.5x leverage target by year-end and flagged a 2%–2.5% currency headwind to 2026 EPS growth based on current spot rates.

Why it matters for pouch users

Velo is BAT's global nicotine pouch brand and a direct rival to ZYN, and BAT's Capital Markets Day is where the company tells investors how hard it plans to push pouches. A mid-teens growth commitment through 2030 signals continued investment in new Velo products, flavors and markets — the pipeline that decides what shows up in stores and online over the next few years.

The margin target matters too. A 30%+ contribution margin means BAT expects pouches to become a seriously profitable business, not a loss-leader. That typically funds premium product development, wider strength ranges and heavier marketing — the same playbook that has made ZYN the category leader in the US.

The event runs through September 30, so more product-level detail may emerge on day two. BAT's next scheduled financial milestone is its full-year 2026 results in February.

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SOURCES: Tobacco Reporter — BAT Hosts Capital Markets Day, BAT Capital Markets Day 2026